FED WATCH: To Oct or Not to Oct…That is The Question

The FOMC held interest rates at 0-25bps at their Sep 17th meeting. The statement was little changed from last time, however the majority of keystone information arrived on the back of the economic projections and the accompanying press conference rather than on the statement itself. Going forward, it is going to be exceedingly difficult for … Read moreFED WATCH: To Oct or Not to Oct…That is The Question

FED WATCH: September Fed Rate Decision will be a Close Call

There is no clear answer whether or not the Federal Open Market Committee will hike the Federal Funds Rate at their meeting on September 17th. As the world eagerly awaits the verdict, the probability for a Sep hike have dwindled down to just 28% from 50% just weeks ago as China Growth concerns have rattled … Read moreFED WATCH: September Fed Rate Decision will be a Close Call

BOC Watch: Bank of Canada Expected to Take a Wait-and-See Approach at Sep Meeting

The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 0.50% at their Sep 9th meeting. The performance of the Canadian economy since the last BOC meeting has been mixed, but broadly in line with BOC’s economic projections expressed in their MPR release. There has been no new information to cement expectations … Read moreBOC Watch: Bank of Canada Expected to Take a Wait-and-See Approach at Sep Meeting

Fed Watch: While China’s Growth is Away The Fed Doves Will Play

Wednesday’s Fed minutes, from the July 29th FOMC meeting took markets by surprise, not only because the embargoed time was broken with the early release, but also because of the dovish stance taken by FOMC committee members. The release arrived contrary to the hawkish Fed rhetoric that has been prevalent in the market place for … Read moreFed Watch: While China’s Growth is Away The Fed Doves Will Play

Forex Watch: China Currency Devaluation Recap and Implications

This week China has taken steps to devalue their currency in hopes of encouraging export driven growth. What was supposed to be a “one-off” policy action, quickly turned into a triple header, with a firm stop on Friday. Markets have carefully weighed the consequences of the radical policy move amidst the finalization of the Greek … Read moreForex Watch: China Currency Devaluation Recap and Implications

Fed Watch: The Reign of The Fed’s Hawk Camp Strengthens as Jobs Are on Track

Markets dialed up the odds of Sep rate hike in the US. The spotlight, this week, was on the Non-Farm Payrolls release, while the results did not seal the deal for a definite rate lift off at the Sep Fed meeting they did illustrate that a solid pace in employment growth is intact. The economic … Read moreFed Watch: The Reign of The Fed’s Hawk Camp Strengthens as Jobs Are on Track

Forex Outlook: Canadian Dollar Bears and Doves

It is no secret that the CAD has been sliding. Amidst a surprise 25 bps cut at the last Bank of Canada (BOC) meeting (July 15th), weakness in the commodity markets, a strengthening USD, and a weaker than anticipated CAD GDP reading have all formed the backdrop for continued weakness in the CAD (strength in … Read moreForex Outlook: Canadian Dollar Bears and Doves

Research Focal Points: King TUT The 2s Over 10s US Treasury Spread Trade Outlook

The Fed is expected to begin its process of normalizing rates this December. Recent commentary from Fed’s Bullard (hawk), who is a non-voting member until he joins the member rotation in 2016, alludes to a greater than 50% chance of a hike as early as Sep. Getting short the TUT (A yield spread constructed by … Read moreResearch Focal Points: King TUT The 2s Over 10s US Treasury Spread Trade Outlook